Blueprint for tomorrow: G+D’s trend radar

Enthusiasts who follow developments in particular sectors will be familiar with what a “trend radar” is. Usually issued by leading companies in a particular field – for example, logistics, energy technologies, or the automotive sector – these trend radars tend to be periodical, are backed up by research, and are delivered in a visually engaging way. 

They are valuable because they synthesize existing research and discussions into informed forecasts. At the same time, they consider wider social and geopolitical developments that may influence future business environments.

“What are the big innovation areas that G+D is impacted by, now and in the future?” asked Philipp Edler, Business Development Manager, Innovation, at G+D. When asked for an example, Edler pointed to the quickly evolving area of decentralization and digital ownership. “That’s a theme we think will have a lot of impact in the future,” he said.

Why produce a trend radar?

The obvious answer is that a trend radar identifies areas of strategic focus for an organization, especially one that operates in diverse yet interconnected areas, such as G+D. Seeing what is coming helps a company and its units prepare in the best and most strategic way. 

However, external communication is an important facet of doing a trend radar. “None of this is secret,” laughed Edler. “We’re tracking mostly measurable things that you can already see around us. Our ‘secret sauce’ is providing the context. We make sense of all that freely available data.” Sharing these insights helps establish thought leadership and encourages innovation across the broader ecosystem.

Bear in mind that these aren’t just commercially important insights. A good trend radar tracks larger trends that impact people at both an individual and a collective level.

A methodology for futurecasting

Can we expect something that is quickly updated, then? The radar is dynamic, of course, but if it’s done right, it doesn’t need to be. 

“We’re following trends, not hype,” stressed Edler. “If our analysis is accurate, there won’t be wholesale changes from year to year.” Put another way, if a trend just disappears, then it probably wasn’t worth pointing to in the first place. 

To understand that, let’s delve into the methodology in play. The trends themselves are grouped by search field:

• Datafication and trust economy, which includes themes around AI agentic systems, digital ownership, and security issues such as privacy and data protection and trustworthy AI.
• Immersive and digital interactions, which include themes such as seamless transactions, post-reality, and digital assets and identities.
• Intelligent infrastructures and connectivity, where macrotrends include Industry 5.0, quantum technologies, zero trust frameworks, and the like.
• Social and geopolitical transformation, including trends such as the circular economy, digital democracy, and antifragile systems.

Some trends intersect and form “topic clusters” such as “resilience and threats.” The team also tracks “weak signals” – early indicators or anomalies, a concept introduced by Igor Ansoff in the 1970s – which can precede emerging trends.

Life cycle of a trend

Crucially, these trends are also grouped by where they are in their development, and how quickly they’ll start having an impact. Those trends that are being tracked in the long term, with a window of perhaps five years to actually impacting business, are grouped under “Watch.” Trends that are expected to impact the industry in 2 years or so are grouped under “Prepare.” Those trends that are already here – so to speak – are grouped under “Act.” 

“We treat trends through a certain life cycle,” said Edler. “So, we’ll bring a particular trend to the company’s attention under ‘Watch.’ In a few years or so, it should ideally move from ‘Watch’ to ‘Prepare’ to ‘Act,’ at which point it should already be part of the company’s strategy, perhaps even with an internal product solution.”